After Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell and Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron overtook Richard Childress Racing’s Kyle Busch in the final laps of Sunday’s EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas (COTA), it seemed like only a collision between the two would prevent one of this season’s two winners from securing another victory.
That crash never occurred, and Bell ended up crossing the finish line first, stopping Byron from earning consecutive COTA wins. Byron had also been aiming for back-to-back victories after opening the 2025 season with his second straight Daytona 500 triumph.
However, Bell managed to claim consecutive wins of his own, following up his victory at Atlanta Motor Speedway last weekend with another at COTA. With two wins under his belt, he has now officially secured a spot in the playoffs, just three races into the 26-race regular season.
Bell’s win at Atlanta alone wasn’t enough to guarantee his playoff spot because there is a possibility of more than 16 different winners throughout the regular season. The 16 postseason slots go to the regular season champion, regardless of wins, along with the next 15 highest-ranked drivers based on their win totals.
Since Bell now has two victories, his playoff berth is confirmed. However, if there were more than 16 different race winners, the single-win drivers would have to rely on points as a tiebreaker to determine who qualifies.
At this stage in the season, the only way to guarantee a playoff position is by winning twice, as no more than 13 drivers can achieve multiple wins in the regular season.
That said, it’s also highly likely that Byron is effectively locked in as well, for three key reasons.
First, since this playoff format was introduced in 2014, there has never been more than 16 different winners in a single regular season. The closest instance was in 2022, when exactly 16 drivers won, although a total of 19 different winners that year showed that it’s technically possible.
Second, the first three races of this season were all considered unpredictable—two superspeedway races and one road course event. With those three races won by well-established playoff drivers, the chances of an underdog taking a surprise victory and claiming a postseason spot have already diminished.
And most importantly, Byron is a consistent championship contender, having reached the Championship 4 in the last two seasons. Even if he doesn’t win another race for the rest of the regular season and the winner total exceeds 16, it’s unlikely he would be the lowest-ranked among the one-win drivers in points.
However, from a mathematical standpoint, Bell is currently the only driver officially confirmed for the playoffs. His early clinch makes him the first driver since 2018 to lock in a spot just three races into the season.
The last time a driver secured a playoff spot this early was in 2018 when Kevin Harvick won two of the first three races (and later three of the first four).
The fourth race of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season, the Shriners Children’s 500, is set for Sunday, March 9, at Phoenix Raceway. Interestingly, Byron won this race in 2023, while Bell took the victory in 2024.
