Bubba Wallace may have jeopardized his entire 2025 NASCAR season with one costly mistake.
The 23XI Racing driver has been enjoying his best season yet, despite still seeking his first Cup Series victory since 2022. Through 19 of 26 regular season races, Wallace has generally stayed well above the playoff cut line — until now.
As the number of different race winners grows (12 so far), spots in the playoff field are becoming harder to secure. Wallace, whose only previous playoff appearance came in 2023 under unique circumstances (when Chase Elliott missed time due to injury), now finds himself in a vulnerable position.
Things fell apart for Wallace during the Chicago Street Race weekend. After topping the practice charts, he stumbled in qualifying and then made a crucial error late in the race. Running on older tires but still in contention for a top 10 finish, Wallace got overly aggressive battling Alex Bowman. Instead of settling for solid points, he spun out and finished 28th — while Bowman crossed the line in eighth.
Ironically, Bowman had expected Wallace to be frustrated after the incident, but that wasn’t the case. However, even Wallace’s team co-owner, Denny Hamlin, criticized him for unnecessarily rough driving, calling it “grabass” behavior.
The timing couldn’t be worse. Wallace is now just two points above the playoff cut line. If he had simply let Bowman go and secured a clean finish, he could be nearly 20 points to the good — especially significant since Bowman had helped Wallace out the previous week.
While we shouldn’t overanalyze every move in a long season filled with hundreds of small moments, the Chicago decision may prove especially damaging. With seven races left in the regular season and more winners expected, Wallace will need every possible point — unless he can break his winless streak.
It’s a reminder of how unforgiving the playoff format can be. Just a few years ago, Martin Truex Jr. missed the playoffs despite being fourth in points because he didn’t have a win. And Ryan Blaney would have been left out in third if Kurt Busch hadn’t withdrawn due to injury.
Wallace’s mistake in Chicago wasn’t just a racing miscalculation — it could end up being the move that defines (or derails) his season.
