Three NASCAR race winners could miss the 2025 playoffs entirely
With just seven races left in the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series regular season, there have already been 12 different winners across the first 19 events. Considering that the remaining schedule includes two road courses and a superspeedway — all of which are unpredictable — and knowing that several full-time drivers who won last year haven’t yet claimed a victory this year, the total number of winners could rise significantly.
Could there be more winners than available playoff spots? While it hasn’t happened since NASCAR adopted the current playoff format in 2014, it came very close in 2022. That year, there were 16 different winners during the regular season — exactly enough to fill the playoff field — but three additional drivers won races early in the playoffs, pushing the total to 19 winners in just 29 races.
The 16 playoff positions are given to the regular season champion and any drivers with multiple wins. The remaining spots go to single-race winners, ordered by points. If there are fewer than 16 winners, non-winners may get in based on points. But if more than 16 drivers win races, the lowest single-race winners in points could be left out.
In theory, as many as 19 different drivers could win a race before the regular season ends, which means up to three race winners might not make the playoffs. Technically, that number could be four, but the regular season points leader — who gets an automatic playoff berth even without a win — is already a race winner this year. Tyler Reddick is the highest-ranked non-winner in the standings, currently sitting fifth overall, just 48 points off the lead.
At present, Trackhouse Racing’s Shane van Gisbergen sits way back in 27th place in the standings, but with multiple wins, his playoff spot is secure. The only other multi-race winners — Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and Christopher Bell — are all comfortably in as well.
The three most vulnerable drivers are the lowest-ranked single-race winners: Joey Logano (12th in points), Austin Cindric (18th), and Josh Berry (22nd). Logano is in a relatively safe position for now, with only a few non-winners ahead of him. But Cindric and Berry could be in trouble if more first-time winners emerge — especially if those drivers are close to them in the standings.
If someone like Ryan Preece (14th) or A.J. Allmendinger (15th) wins in the coming weeks, it could spell disaster for Cindric and Berry. Heading into the high-stakes regular season finale at Daytona, their playoff hopes could hang by a thread if the total number of different winners rises and they remain near the bottom among that group.
